Writing

Passing Thoughts

A running list of thoughts before they become essays.

RLCD and the Jev moment

in my training-data primer, i argued that synthetic data could scale expert judgment, but couldn’t replace it when the work got ambiguous. Jev has me wondering how much of that judgment needs to show up as individual training examples.

you give Jev context and a question with defined answers. for a support ticket, that might be which team should handle it. Jev returns probabilities for the possible answers, which the surrounding code can use to route the ticket or ask for a review.

TypeSafe calls its training approach RLCD, reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions. the goal is for answers assigned an 80% probability to be right about 80% of the time across many predictions. that makes uncertainty something a developer can use when deciding how much responsibility to give the model.

and its founder says Jev was trained entirely on synthetic data. i’d still like to see the reward and training loop behind that. the public explanation describes the goal much more clearly than the process that produces it.

maybe i made “synthetic” do too much work. if experts design the cases and the criteria used to judge them, their judgment could reach the model through generated examples. i want to understand how far that can go when the decisions get messy.

Jev is named for Jevons paradox, where greater efficiency can lead to more total use. if decisions get cheap enough to wire into every workflow, i’d expect the work of defining and checking them to grow too. that could change labor pretty dramatically, especially if a small amount of expert input ends up shaping a huge number of decisions.

techno-soteriology

big word, but;

Gemini AI Overview definition of techno-soteriology

funny, i'm using a Gemini overview to give you the definition lol

a few months ago, i watched Dune: Part Two, a story about the dangers of rallying around messianic figures. working in tech, it got me thinking.

frontier labs are starting to feel like secular priesthoods. we pick a lab and start aligning ourselves not just with its models, but with everything it claims to stand for.

“go OpenAI!” “boo Anthropic!” “i loved Sam’s speech at [x].” “i can’t believe Dario made that claim about [y].”

the alignment feels natural. but in enough numbers, it gives the labs something close to a congregation.

with our support, the labs ship more than just models: they start narrating approaching ruptures, promising salvation, warning of annihilation, and turning forecasts of uncertain futures into modern fear or hype.

those stories become mandates for capital accumulation, consent to data mining, and compliance with a lab’s view of how life should be. by then, the institution looks a lot like a priesthood, its leader a prophet, and the intelligence at its center a golden oracle. we'll call it AGI. i'm afraid some people will call it God.